CNAS Prediction Danzig

  OCTOBER 2011 Driving in the Dark  Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security  By Richard Danzig  Acknowledgments  This paper was written with the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Defense Science Office (DSO) and benefited considerably from the support and interest of DARPA Director Regina Dugan, Deputy Director Ken Gabriel and DSO Director Leo Christodoulou In addition, I am grateful for research assistance by Zachary Hosford and editorial suggestions from Kristin Lord and Nora Bensahel of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) I am also grateful to Liz Fontaine (CNAS) for the excellent design of this report I was greatly helped by com-ments from Michael Abramowitz (The Holocaust Museum), Norm Augustine (former CEO of Lockheed Martin), Jim Carlini (Carlini Consulting), Daniel Chiu (Principal Director of Strategy, Office of the Secretary of Defense), Paul Davis (RAND Corporation), Debra Knopman (RAND), Rob Lempert (RAND), Steve Popper (RAND), Chris Darby (In-Q-Tel), Jaymie Durnan (Science and Technology Advisor for the Principal Deputy Director for Defense Research and Engineering, Office of the Secretary of Defense), Paul Eremenko (Program Manager, DARPA Tactical Technology Office), Peter Feaver (Duke University), Herb Fenster (McKenna Long Aldridge LLP), Bran Ferren (Applied Minds, Inc), T X Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies), Peter Ho (Permanent Secretary, Foreign Ministry of Singapore), Alexander Klimburg (Austrian Institute for International Affairs), Frank Kramer (Atlantic Council), Andrew Krepinevich (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments), Paul Kozemchak (Special Assistant to the Director of DARPA), Robert Knapp (Physics Department, Evergreen College), Terry Leighton (Oakland Children’s Hospital), Gautam Mukunda (Harvard Business School), John Petersen (Arlington Institute), Ionut Popescu (Duke University), Jonathan Reiber (Office of the Under Secretary for Policy, Department of Defense), Tom Ricks (CNAS), Alan Rudolph (Defense Threat Reduction Agency), Mark Ryland (Amazon Web Services), Peter Schwartz (Global Business Network) and Jerry Warner (Defense Life Sciences, Inc) I am particularly grateful for semi-nar discussions of a draft of this paper organized by the Hewett Foundation and the National Defense University (NDU)  The organizer of the NDU seminar, Dr Hans Binnendijk, was particularly generous in his comments and suggestions, and four participants in that seminar – Neyla Arnas, Linda Brandt, Leon Fuerth and Lin Wells – followed up with comments and materials that I especially valued Of course, the views represented here are my own and should not be attributed to these individuals or to DARPA Moreover, the contributions of those noted above should be regarded as having been made in their personal, rather than institutional, roles Cover Image (ISTOCKPHOTO)  Driving in the Dark  Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security  By Richard Danzig O C T O B E R  2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 5I: Introduction 7II: Humanity Is Compelled to Predict 10 and Will Fail – The First Five PropositionsIII: How to Prepare for Predictive Failure – 18  The Last Five PropositionsIV: Conclusion 28